In 1914 Five great powers reigned over Europe. The other smaller countries depended their securities on these five. From a present view it looks strange that there were no border disputes between these five except Alsace and Lorraine which the Germans and French estranged. But 46 years had already passed since French lost those territories. Among political parties there was an agreement not to claim by force in this dispute.

Europeans divided the whole world up except American Continent, Near East and Far East. There had been constant disputes about colonies.

However, there had never been any war among these five in European Continent for almost fifty years. Ottoman Empire had been declining and several wars even in Europe occurred disputing the succession. No these five involved. Shortly before 1914 two Balkan Wars were fought among the small. These five did not interfere.

Europe with the same belief in religion, culture and tradition seemed concerted to proceed toward peace and prosperity. All royal families were inter-married and aristocratic diplomats were active to prevent war at the time of premature situation.

Those days even the dispute on ideology was hardly counted. France was the great republic but long ago they gave up to export this. Except Russia monarchy was not the old absolute system converted to the constitutional monarchy. Under this, parliament statesmen became dominant on the political scene.

There existed two military alliances among these five. German-Austrian alliance and Russo-Franco alliance. There was no dangerous clause such as automatic entry into war. But this caused severe geographical effects on military personnel.

The Germans must face with a two front war when European war coming.

Of course the Russians hold the longest front. Austria may have front against Italians. But these annoyance were less tough than Germans'. This simple fact binds general staff of these five.

The British were isolated from others, almost neutral. They had, of course, had antagonism against Germans seeking for naval race and had some kind of friendship with the French due to Entente Cordiale. However, in the past of potentially military conflicts they appeared as a neutral inter mediator. And they were eager to keep friendship with Austrians.

Statesmen and sovereigns alike did not overestimate this confrontation between countries. Naturally, alliance between countries was designed to keep peace, not to make war. And, it should be said that peace was being while no firing in anger though confrontation existed.

1914 was promised to be peaceful since the second Balkan war finished. Tourists from US enjoyed the cruise in the Rhine, recently annulled military zone. In France a wife of prime minister shot a pressman to death, and all head lines of newspaper were occupied by that scandal. A German industrialist announced joint-venture established in UK. All went well in Europe.

Then, why the Great war happened ?

Because the diplomacy failed and military plans derailed and ran away. The worse crisis than July's happened many times before. Usually, diplomacy prevented it from resorting to war. However, at only this time all failed beyond expectation of everyone. In the great crisis like this people had tendency to believe something important behind the scene: cause, justice, progress and evil. Nothing like those.

The war was caused by thirty or less of statesmen, diplomats and military leaders' folly.

Some people may change the tone saying that the war was inevitable because there existed bourgeois societe, confrontation among states or the nation herself. This is baseless. No one wanted the great one, European war.

Vienna

Francis Joseph, the Emperor was 83 year of age on the day of Sarajevo. He was not in good terms with assassinated Franz Ferdinand, the Archduke because of his marriage with Bohemian countess.

Shortly after the assassination the cabinet meeting opened to no conclusion. This type of decision making process would be seen in three rather backward countries, Germany, Austria=Hungary and Russia. In these empires the minister of foreign affairs or the chancellor for Germany was directly responsible for his master, the Emperor. As a result the cabinet itself was not authorised to make a decision. But, it does not mean that Emperor was almighty.

All Emperors in these countries were democratic following the ideal sovereign under the rule of constitutional monarchy.They all obeyed to the advice of the responsible minister. In Austria=Hungary the responsible minister was Berchtold. Afterwards, as he was criticised by LloydGeorge as foolish he was excellent in appearance and social manner but superficial in thought and uncertain in decision.

Berchtold

Half a year later Tisza, prime minister of Hungary met the Emperor and told that Berchtold was not equal to his job. Without delay Francis Yoseph replied that he pointed out it everyday to Berchtold but he failed to convince it.

Berchtold responsible for Sarajevo case talked with Conrad von Hoetzendorf, chief of general staff about how the local war with Serbia would happen. Conrad replied that even toward the local war the general mobilisation was inevitable. So, all or nothing he had to choose.

This repeated in every capital of the great power except Great Britain in July, 1914.

Conrad explained of the necessity to follow the prearranged mobilisation plan which was intended for two front war, against Russia and Serbia.

A mobilisation plan of each country was without doubt responsible for the war. Four countries, Russia, Germany, France, Austria=Hungary held the elaborated mobilisation plan to produce more than 1 million army all at once. However, it was noted that Great Britain, US and Japan had no plans worth of general mobilisation. The general mobilisation was different from universal conscription system.

Japan adopted universal conscription system without a general mobilisation plan. They selected men suitable for military training by physical test, as usually 18% against total generation.

An island country like Great Britain, US and Japan does not need universal conscription system or a general mobilisation plan because the enemy had to take time to land on their shores.

Upon general mobilisation the government asked reservists to rejoin the unit by a signal. All reservists knew where they leave for by their military pocketbooks. Each unit was assembled somewhere and move to the designated place to constitute higher formation. It would take enormous amount of rolling stocks on rails. The main motivation of the general staff was speed. If the enemy finished this process faster than you the result was disastrous. They could attack to your unprepared troops.

Berchtold could not understand this to the last. He believed the army were able to manage the war designated by politicians.

From his record Berchtold had intended for the local war against Serbia since the first instance. He opened the responsible cabinet meeting on 3 July.

When he proposed to issue the ultimatum to Serbia Tisza was opposed to it. He was even against the local war with Serbia and requested German backing for Austrian act. This was an good idea to Berchtold. He could shift this burden to German shoulders.

On 5 July the Kaiser Wilhelm met with Szoegyeny-Marich, Austrian ambassador at Potsdam. The Kaiser showed some sense that before his decision he could be advised by his Chancellor, Bethmann-Hollweg. However, Bethmann was violent saying whatsoever Russia encouraged Serbian both Empires should not shrink. He rather provoked the Kaiser to take a stiff attitude toward Russia.

In 1908, 6 years ago, the minor conflict occurred between Austria and Russia. Long long before, Russia and Austria had agreed in secrecy that Russia would recognise Austrian take over of Bosnia and Herzegovina in return for Austrian backing for Russian hegemony over the Straits, which meant Austria put pressure on Germany to agree, too. When Austria took both provinces, she did nothing for Russia. This was surely a kind of betrayal. Russia was upset but did nothing confronted with German military pressure. Russia was militarily weakened because of the defeat by Japanese in Manchuria.

This accident also put some shadow over Russian decisions. Bethmann was confident that under German pressure Russians would withdraw like the last one.

The Kaiser gave a blank cheque to Austrians. But both the Kaiser and Bethmann did not believe Austrians would fill the blank. The Kaiser went on holiday, cruise off Norway coast.

Berchtold was pleased to receive this but felt uneasy because no one stopped his war plan. Berchtold decided not to take action immediately. He tried to draft the ultimatum to Serbia taking enough time and to gather all consensus available.

He finished his work and delivered the ultimatum to Serbian who were under the spell of fear and fate on 23 July when French delegate in Saint Petersburg left for returning. According to Grey, British foreign secretary, this was "the most formidable document that was ever addressed from one state to another."

Saint Petersburg

Nicholas the Second, Tsar of Russian Empire and Lord Protector of Greek Authodoxity was a weak man tormented by his only son's decease, haemophilia. His empire was also torn down by series of political turmoil and terrorism. On the other hand, he was steadfast in friendship with the Allied and with incompetent subjects.

Nicholas and his Son

He was probably up to par to speak three languages frequently and to understand any idea proposed by subjects. However, something like imagination dropped in his mind. Before the Japanese started the war against Russians he had ordered his troops to cross R. Yaloo, so to invade into Korean peninsula. If he checked East Asian history he could easily found out that when tribes unknown to them stepped into Korean peninsula Japanese challenged and fought thoroughly even against far bigger giants such as Tang dynasty, Mongolians, Ming dynasty and Manchurians. He failed to imagine what if the armed policemen fired peaceful demonstrators on the streets of Saint Petersburg, and if he could not escape outside Russia under communists rule. And then, what happened next if he ordered the general mobilisation against Germany.

He did nothing until 23 July; nothing as consultation with French visiting. He decided alone everything critical to the world history then on.

Receiving Austrian ultimatum Sazonv, minister of foreign affairs provided Nicholas three alternatives.

1. Military commitment to Serbia
2. Negotiation with Austrians on behalf of Serbian
3. Partial mobilisation against Austria.

It was worth considering of picking up one or combining two of those. But, military commitment was too aggressive at this stage and to negotiate directly with Austrians might complicate the diplomatic process itself. Nicholas thought it too weak to be indifferent to the fate of Serbia. He still remembered of the humiliation in 1908.

However, Nicholas and Sazonov committed a fatal mistake by not being advised by military personnel. In Russian military command the factional conflict existed between Sukhomlinov school and Grand duke Nicholas. It was not easy to communicate important matters with military leaders.

Sazonv

When Nicholas decided on partial mobilisation Janushkevic, chief of general staff was opposed to it because it made impossible to order general mobilisation and make the German border defenceless. The Russians had disputed about which mobilisation was better until German note to declare war reached, not bothered by anything else.

This dispute was not baseless even if it was senseless. The problem was for Nicholas not to take the Schlieffen plan into account. Schlieffen plan depended on speed. If Russians mobilised faster than German expectation the Germans would automatically plunge into France.

This plan was divulged even through mass media. Russian general staff got intelligence of it long before. But they were not obliged to advise. Probably they thought that the Schlieffen plan was not so bad because they were safe from German offensive for 49 days and by Belgium neutrality violation they could acquire the British as an ally.

However, Russian general mobilisation itself was not intended for European war but intimidation to Austrians.

Nicholas signed the order for general mobilisation on 30 July: the first instance among big five.

Berlin

The Kaiser was off Norway coast for cruising and Moltke jr. chief of general staff took a trip to Karlsbad for hot spring remedy. Both rushed back to their working place after hearing of the detail of the Austrian ultimatum. After the war Wilhelm was writing that he had just heard of the detail on board by Norwegian newspaper. It was believable enough.

The sovereign was often ignored by the subjects because they believed their brain was far superb than his. He had of course been authorised to fire them. But this decision had also to go through bureaucratic process. A good sovereign should not fire them many times.

During July crisis sovereigns gave better decisions than subjects. But all of them finally obeyed. Bureaucrat were responsible for specific area; for instance military affairs, people's welfare, or diplomacy.

Berchtold soon after he noticed Serbian reply which did not give 100% consent to his conditions, severed all relationship with Serbia. Wilhelm had thought of Serbian reply as satisfactory and was surprised at Austrian harsh response. But, all information to him delayed a day because his palace had no telephone with Berlin. The diplomatic situation went always a day ahead to his decision.

Bethmann

Bethmann thought differently from his master. He agreed with Berchtold to start localised war. But, Berchtold took the declaration of war as diplomatic means. Bethmann thought that by resorting to local war the old and relinquished Empire might juvenile and increase prestige. Both thought Russia could not do anything faced with German might.

Anyway Bethmann supported Austrian violent diplomacy. Grey proposed big 5 conference to Austria and Germany. Bethmann refused. Conrad also opposed to declaration of war at this early stage. However, Berchtold successfully got permission from his master to declare war by cheating. He tramped up the fact that Serbian army fired Austrian mountain guard somewhere.

On 27 Austria declared war against Serbia. In that evening Austrian gunboats on the Danube bombarded Belgrade that had already been declared an open city.

This news astonished the whole world.　

Wilhelm was not pleased with the diplomacy drifting not in favour of Germany. Even if the war was localised Germany was not recognised as a favourable inter mediator but a simple aggressor. When Russia resorted to violence Great Britain might stand for the Russo-Franco alliance.

He proposed the idea, "Halt in Belgrade." It was a perfect idea to stop violence in the circumstance of nineteenth century. Austrians could take Belgrade to force Serbian to fulfil their demands. Bethmann finally agreed on this proposal.

If nothing ensued, the idea functioned and peace would be kept.

Suddenly, the real jingoism came from military leaders. After the news of Russian mobilisation Moltke jr lost his temper. If Germany did not mobilise she was promised to lose because his war plan, "Sclieffen plan revised" depended on procrastinate Russian mobilisation.

Moltke jr.

Whatever national policy may be Moltke jr. had only this for the military operational plan. Though the news of mobilisation came from Russia he would attack France first designated by prearranged war plan, " Schlieffen plan revised." Except for Moltke jr. no one thought of European war even at this stage though a localised war had already taken place.

Moreover, this plan also would bring the British to the opposite side.

Moltke jr. believed that there was no chance of victory except executing "Schlieffen plan revised"and after the war Germany could do anything as she liked.

However, if seeing the result of the First World War we can easily deny the assumptions Moltke jr. proposed. If the German chose defensive they were invincible literally. The Germans could hold two front war for almost three years, and eventually defeated Russians. After the treaty of Versailles France could not force her will upon Germany except that the enforcement was approved by the British.

Clausewitz once said, "War is a continuation of national policy." If so, war plan should serve for national policy. Schlieffen plan itself was contrary to this famous proposition. The First World War was caused by this defection. Because except Germany all nations could hold their armies inside their borders upon mobilisation. Only Schieffen combined both mobilisation and war. Either the war followed national policy or not soldiers automatically crossed the border following that prearranged war plan.

Thus, this destined the history of twentieth century.

On 31 July Germany sent the ultimatum to Russia requesting to undo mobilisation. Nobody accepted this type of intimidation in Europe. Then, declaration of war against Russia followed.

The First World War began.

London

Even after the declaration of war flashed throughout Europe Great Britain was well out of it. There was a division even among cabinet members. Morley, an old liberal, insisted on armed neutrality though Asquith, prime minister, had shown some sympathy to French.

In the evening of 2 August, German minister at Brussels handed the ultimatum to request free passage in Belgium. Next morning, the cabinet approved historical speech of Grey which was to be made at the House of Commons that afternoon.

In this speech Grey clarified the ways open to the British with no bindings by any treaties but if Belgian neutrality was violated there was no other way than to take guns.

Grey

The German troops crossed the border around Goemlich at 800 on 5 August. Different from British expectation that meant the full scale invasion. The British sent ultimatum to Germans. Great Britain was the first country to declare war against Germany, not the other way around.

Tokyo

The British sometimes said "Japanese entered the war at their own will and for their sake with no effect on the war in Europe." This was not true. In modern war the whole balance of nations affects any battle fields.

Without Japanese backing could the Russians send all troops to the eastern front ? On the other hand Japanese failed in warship construction policy. After Russo-Japanese war they captured 8 Russian battleships even though they had only 6 before. 4 other battleships were under construction. In total 18 battleships were available. Very impressive in number. However, Dreadnought revolution occurred.

Japanese took a mistake to reduce the navy budget and to continue to construct old-type battleships. Shortly before the outbreak of the war Japanese had no dreadnought battleships and two first class battle cruisers. One was built in England. Then, they had to train crew members.

While the situation in navy was deplorable the news of the outbreak of the war flashed in. German Oriental fleet was already active to capture a Russian cargo ship at the strait of Tsushima on 3 August. But they had no fast moving battleships except those two without trained seamen.

They asked for help to the British, an ally reliable for throughout Russo-Japanese war. To their astonishment they were notified British navy would concentrate all war ships in North Sea to make a decisive battle with German Highseas Fleet. It was already perceived by the remote Australians. The Austrians proposed the very foolish idea to make the Pacific neutral by negotiation with the Germans.

Though, they had to send their ANZAC troops to the western front or somewhere. Grey thought it over. However, Churchill already asked Japanese to enter the war without limitation. Sensitive enough. The Germans already began commerce raid over the Pacific. The Americans were neutral. However, Germans were not. Australians repeated this type of unrealistic proposals during the Second World War.

Japanese had to deal with these contradictory ideas from Great Britain and their Dominions. Japanese way of thinking was very simple.

This war should end up soon. If the Germans defeated Russians they had to trespass the whole waste land of Siberia. After the attrition inflicted Japanese could choose the battle field around Lake Baikal and give a decisive blow to the Germans.

On 15 August Japan sent ultimatum to Germany to evacuate Tsingtao.